Matthew Rebbert

> That all sounds rosy, but if people don't buy the service, they're not
> going to survive. The history of new technologies is awash with "sure
> fire" companies that didn't make it. Personally, I can't ever see myself
> paying for radio.

I bet it was also people like you who said cable tv would never survive,
look at them now. There is a huge market for satellite radio, and Sirus and
XM are both exploiting it. If you live in an area like Kingsport, TN or out
in the middle of nowhere I am sure XM is great because FM and AM selection
is horrible. I personally had XM a couple years back when I lived in TN,
now I live in DC and there are so many FM and AM stations I no longer feel
the need for it. I might go back though if my morning talk show (Elliot in
the morning on DC101) is ever canceled. I personally know 6 people who I
work with (out of 15) that use XM. To tell you the truth I no nothing about
Sirus and don't know anyone with the service so I can't speak to their
success. But getting back on track, I am quite sure the demand for
Satellite Radio is there, and as long as demand is there the companies won't
be going anywhere as the technology is cheap once you get the satellites in
the sky and get them paid off.

nothermark

On Fri, 25 Mar 2005 16:40:22 GMT, Brian Nystrom
<brian.nystrom@att.net> wrote:

>frontmed@gmail.com wrote:
>>>>>You making the rather big - and quite possibly erroneous -
>>
>> assumption
>> that there are a lot of people out there that would be swayed to buy a
>> car simply because it comes with a radio that requires you to pay for
>> the privilege of listening to it. Particularly with a brand that's
>> known
>> for inexpensive vehicles, that seems highly unlikely.
>>
>> This is not an assumption. GM has heavily reasearched the subject and
>> determined that cars factory equipped with XM sell faster than cars
>> that aren't.
>>
>GM also sells a lot of more upscale vehicles than Hyundai does. One
>could also argue that anyone that would buy a GM vehicle can probably be
>talked into just about anything. ;-)
>>
>>>>>questionable whether XM or Serius will even survive.
>>
>>
>> At this point, the survival of both companies is no longer in question.
>> Sirius still has some major financial hurdles to clear and may or may
>> not be fully funded, but XM has a billion in cash and will actually
>> post its first cash positive quarter this quarter (although, they will
>> return to a cash flow negative situation for a few more quarters;
>> however, the cash burn for XM at this point is minimal). Not only is
>> XM in a secure financial position at this point; they will, a couple
>> years from now, have reached a point where the term "cash cow" will
>> apply.
>>
>> Sirius may need a small amount of additional funding, but will have no
>> trouble raising another few hundred million in the debt markets.
>>
>That all sounds rosy, but if people don't buy the service, they're not
>going to survive. The history of new technologies is awash with "sure
>fire" companies that didn't make it. Personally, I can't ever see myself
>paying for radio.

I agree with you but my kid's priorities are quite different. Who'd
pay a dolloar song to download music for their IPOD when they could
just turn on a broadcast radio? Then there is the content issue. The
shock jocks and a lot of the marginal and fringe folks are gong to
sattellite as the FCC restrictions are much less stringent.

RJ

This would be a turnoff for me. I would never pay to listen to talk radio.
It doesn't make any sense to pay for something that would not be used. My
daughter is having the same problem is finding a new car that the dealer had
not order with XM. There is too many monthly fees nowadays for all the audio
and video services.

Brian Nystrom

Matthew Rebbert wrote:
>>That all sounds rosy, but if people don't buy the service, they're not
>>going to survive. The history of new technologies is awash with "sure
>>fire" companies that didn't make it. Personally, I can't ever see myself
>>paying for radio.
>
>
> I bet it was also people like you who said cable tv would never survive,
> look at them now.

I work in the computer industry, so I'm hardly the luddite you make me
out to be. However, I won't pay for things I don't need and I don't
adopt "bleeding edge" technology simply because it's cool. I'm not
saying that you do, either, but merely staking out my position. BTW, I
choose not to have cable TV because I don't need it and it's gotten way
too expensive.

> There is a huge market for satellite radio, and Sirus and
> XM are both exploiting it. If you live in an area like Kingsport, TN or out
> in the middle of nowhere I am sure XM is great because FM and AM selection
> is horrible.

Sure. Satellite TV and internet access are a boon to them, too. But, how
many people in this country are actually in that position and can afford
to pay for it?

> I personally had XM a couple years back when I lived in TN,
> now I live in DC and there are so many FM and AM stations I no longer feel
> the need for it. I might go back though if my morning talk show (Elliot in
> the morning on DC101) is ever canceled. I personally know 6 people who I
> work with (out of 15) that use XM.

Let's see if they stick with it long-term.

> To tell you the truth I no nothing about
> Sirus and don't know anyone with the service so I can't speak to their
> success. But getting back on track, I am quite sure the demand for
> Satellite Radio is there, and as long as demand is there the companies won't
> be going anywhere as the technology is cheap once you get the satellites in
> the sky and get them paid off.

Therin lies the rub. If the demand isn't enough to pay for the
infrastructure, the companies will fail. If there's enough demand to get
them over the hump, they'll make it. We'll see, but as I said before, I
can't see myself ever subscribing to either of them.

markansas859

theawesome1@despammed.com wrote:
> NBC News this morning stated that Hyundai will have Standard XM radio
> in auto in 2006. But we still have to pay $12 a month for satelitte
> radio?

the great WHINE strikes again

everyone else pays the $12 a month, you special or something?


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frontmed@gmail.com

>>>>> That all sounds rosy, but if people don't buy the service,
they're not
going to survive. The history of new technologies is awash with "sure
fire" companies that didn't make it. Personally, I can't ever see
myself
paying for radio.

There are ample statistics on the take rates of factory installed XM.
We know, for example, that over 60% of people who buy a car that is
factory equipped with XM will become subscribers. 40%, which you may
be a member of, won't. Not now, at least.

The 60% take rate surely will not hold for Hyundai -- not because of
the cars they're in, but because they are going to Standard Equipment
rather than Factory Installed Options. But 50% is likely.

>> Personally, I can't ever see myself paying for radio.

I've a lot of people say this until they try it. What most don't
understand it that isn't "radio" in the sense that they know it.

Personally, I can't ever see MY self counting something that would make
my work and drive time more relaxing out without trying it. But
that's just me.

frontmed@gmail.com

>>>> I feel the same way... at least for now. I'm old enough to
remember when
having a radio (any radio) in a vehicle was a big deal. What I really
want
is a radio that does the same thing that TiVo does for my television
viewing!

XM already does this. See http://xmradio.com/myfi/index.jsp

This is just the first release, however. Before the year is up you can
expect to see more of this kind of functionality.

frontmed@gmail.com

>>> Let's see if they stick with it long-term.

XM's monthly churn rate is 1.2%.

Brian Nystrom

frontmed@gmail.com wrote:

> There are ample statistics on the take rates of factory installed XM.
> We know, for example, that over 60% of people who buy a car that is
> factory equipped with XM will become subscribers.

And what percentage of new cars are sold with XM? That 60% could
actually be a relatively small number of people. Let's see how many of
them are still subscribers after a year or two.

> The 60% take rate surely will not hold for Hyundai -- not because of
> the cars they're in, but because they are going to Standard Equipment
> rather than Factory Installed Options. But 50% is likely.

Dream on. I'll bet that it won't even be half of that.

frontmed@gmail.com

>> And what percentage of new cars are sold with XM?

GM is factory equipping between 20 and 30% of its cars with XM,
increasing quarterly. Honda is doing 400,000 units this year.

>>> Let's see how many of them are still subscribers after a year or
two.

We have several years history on this. One quarter the churn rate hit
1.6%; but other than that one quarter, XM's churn has consistently been
1.2-1.4%. I don't know what could be clearer.

>>> I'll bet that it won't even be half of that.

Well, I'd definitely take that bet. You have no basis whatsoever for
your remark; meanwhile, there are a ton of statistics to support my
assertion. 50% will be in the ballpark. 40%? 60%? Could be. But
50% won't be far off.

Joe Kaffe

<frontmed@gmail.com> wrote in message
news:1111982354.497721.218600@o13g2000cwo.googlegr oups.com...
> >>>> I feel the same way... at least for now. I'm old enough to
> remember when
> having a radio (any radio) in a vehicle was a big deal. What I really
> want
> is a radio that does the same thing that TiVo does for my television
> viewing!
>
> XM already does this. See http://xmradio.com/myfi/index.jsp
>
> This is just the first release, however. Before the year is up you can
> expect to see more of this kind of functionality.

Interesting. I'm sure we'll actually see some of these features become
useful as opposed to being minimally functional. (Actually, the SkyFi2 is
closer to what I want... at least the seed is there.)

Brian Nystrom

frontmed@gmail.com wrote:
>>>And what percentage of new cars are sold with XM?
>
>
> GM is factory equipping between 20 and 30% of its cars with XM,
> increasing quarterly. Honda is doing 400,000 units this year.

So, at a 60% subscription rate, that means only 12-18% of people that
buy their vehicles actually become XM subscribers at all, let alone stay
with it.

>>>>Let's see how many of them are still subscribers after a year or
>
> two.
>
> We have several years history on this. One quarter the churn rate hit
> 1.6%; but other than that one quarter, XM's churn has consistently been
> 1.2-1.4%. I don't know what could be clearer.

Right now, the technology is new and chic. That will change once the
early adopters have had their fling with it. The turnover rate will
increase, it's just a matter of time.
>
>>>>I'll bet that it won't even be half of that.
>

> Well, I'd definitely take that bet. You have no basis whatsoever for
> your remark; meanwhile, there are a ton of statistics to support my
> assertion. 50% will be in the ballpark. 40%? 60%? Could be. But
> 50% won't be far off.

Considering GM's numbers don't come anywhere near that, I'll stand by my
previous statement.

frontmed@gmail.com

>>>> Considering GM's numbers don't come anywhere near that, I'll stand
by my previous statement.

WTF are you talking about?

60% of XM equipped GM cars become XM subscribers. I thought I had said
that already.

There is no end to this argument. Let's just agree to disagree and see
where we are a couple years down the road.

Brian Nystrom

frontmed@gmail.com wrote:
>>>>>Considering GM's numbers don't come anywhere near that, I'll stand
>
> by my previous statement.
>
> WTF are you talking about?
>
> 60% of XM equipped GM cars become XM subscribers. I thought I had said
> that already.
>
> There is no end to this argument. Let's just agree to disagree and see
> where we are a couple years down the road.

Apparently you are mathematically challenged. If only 20-30% of GM cars
are purchased with XM (presumably because only that number want it) and
only 60% of those become subscribers, then only 12-18% of GM buyers
become XM subscribers. The fact that Hyundai is giving XM away does not
mean that their overall subscription rate will be any higher.

frontmed@gmail.com

>>>> Apparently you are mathematically challenged. If only 20-30% of GM
cars
are purchased with XM (presumably because only that number want it) and
only 60% of those become subscribers, then only 12-18% of GM buyers
become XM subscribers. The fact that Hyundai is giving XM away does not
mean that their overall subscription rate will be any higher.

If you can't see how screwed up your logic is on this, I don't think I
can help you. Totally convoluted reasoning.

The "take rate" (60%) is based on the number of units in which XM is
factory installed. NOT the number of vehicles manufacturered. One
could reasonably argue that the take rate will decline somewhat, maybe
to 50%. But your assertion is absurd.

YOU are calling someone else "mathematically challenged"??? LMAO.